State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Incidence, United States, Melanoma of the Skin, All Races (includes Hispanic), All Ages, Both Sexes

Incidence, United States, Melanoma of the Skin, All Races (includes Hispanic), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 21 years and 2 segments
During 2002-2017, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.7 to 2.4.
During 2017-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to 1.2.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 17.4. The estimated rate was 17.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 17.2. The estimated rate was 18.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 18.2. The estimated rate was 18.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 19.5. The estimated rate was 18.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 19.3. The estimated rate was 19.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 19.7. The estimated rate was 19.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 20.1. The estimated rate was 19.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 20.5. The estimated rate was 20.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 20.2. The estimated rate was 20.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 20.8. The estimated rate was 21.0.
In 2012, the observed rate was 20.8. The estimated rate was 21.4.
In 2013, the observed rate was 21.5. The estimated rate was 21.8.
In 2014, the observed rate was 22.4. The estimated rate was 22.2.
In 2015, the observed rate was 23.1. The estimated rate was 22.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 23.2. The estimated rate was 23.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 23.6. The estimated rate was 23.6.
In 2018, the observed rate was 23.1. The estimated rate was 23.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 24.0. The estimated rate was 23.7.
In 2020, the observed rate was 20.9. The estimated rate was 23.7.
In 2021, the observed rate was 23.7. The estimated rate was 23.7.
In 2022, the observed rate was 23.8. The estimated rate was 23.8.


Notes:
Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/21/2026 4:10 pm.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (SEER areas use 20 age groups and NPCR areas use 19 age groups). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (mortality data and incidence data for SEER areas use 20 age groups while incidence data for NPCR areas use 19 age groups).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:

If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.

If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.

If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.

If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.

If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

Trends for this graph are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.