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Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2011)

Incidence, SEER 9 Registries, Lung & Bronchus, White (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes
Incidence, SEER 9 Registries, Lung & Bronchus, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes
Mortality, United States, Lung & Bronchus, White (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes
Mortality, United States, Lung & Bronchus, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Incidence, SEER 9 Registries, Lung & Bronchus, White (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 37 years and 4 segments
During 1975-1982, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.0 to 3.1.
During 1982-1991, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was slightly rising: 1.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.7 to 1.5.
During 1991-2007, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was slightly falling: -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.7 to -0.5.
During 2007-2011, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.5 to -1.5.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 51.9. The estimated rate was 52.7.
In 1976, the observed rate was 54.6. The estimated rate was 54.1.
In 1977, the observed rate was 55.9. The estimated rate was 55.5.
In 1978, the observed rate was 57.2. The estimated rate was 56.9.
In 1979, the observed rate was 58.0. The estimated rate was 58.3.
In 1980, the observed rate was 59.4. The estimated rate was 59.8.
In 1981, the observed rate was 61.5. The estimated rate was 61.3.
In 1982, the observed rate was 63.1. The estimated rate was 62.9.
In 1983, the observed rate was 63.0. The estimated rate was 63.6.
In 1984, the observed rate was 64.3. The estimated rate was 64.3.
In 1985, the observed rate was 64.0. The estimated rate was 64.9.
In 1986, the observed rate was 65.1. The estimated rate was 65.6.
In 1987, the observed rate was 68.1. The estimated rate was 66.3.
In 1988, the observed rate was 68.2. The estimated rate was 67.0.
In 1989, the observed rate was 67.6. The estimated rate was 67.8.
In 1990, the observed rate was 68.2. The estimated rate was 68.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 69.0. The estimated rate was 69.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 68.9. The estimated rate was 68.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 67.8. The estimated rate was 68.4.
In 1994, the observed rate was 67.3. The estimated rate was 68.0.
In 1995, the observed rate was 67.1. The estimated rate was 67.6.
In 1996, the observed rate was 66.8. The estimated rate was 67.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 67.2. The estimated rate was 66.8.
In 1998, the observed rate was 68.1. The estimated rate was 66.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 66.3. The estimated rate was 66.0.
In 2000, the observed rate was 64.7. The estimated rate was 65.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 65.0. The estimated rate was 65.2.
In 2002, the observed rate was 64.8. The estimated rate was 64.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 65.5. The estimated rate was 64.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 62.8. The estimated rate was 64.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 64.0. The estimated rate was 63.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 62.8. The estimated rate was 63.3.
In 2007, the observed rate was 63.0. The estimated rate was 62.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 61.0. The estimated rate was 61.3.
In 2009, the observed rate was 60.4. The estimated rate was 59.8.
In 2010, the observed rate was 58.4. The estimated rate was 58.3.
In 2011, the observed rate was 56.5. The estimated rate was 56.8.

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Incidence, SEER 9 Registries, Lung & Bronchus, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 37 years and 3 segments
During 1975-1985, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was rising: 3.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.2 to 4.2.
During 1985-2008, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was slightly falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.2 to -0.7.
During 2008-2011, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was falling: -5.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -9.5 to -0.6.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 64.5. The estimated rate was 68.1.
In 1976, the observed rate was 72.3. The estimated rate was 70.3.
In 1977, the observed rate was 73.6. The estimated rate was 72.5.
In 1978, the observed rate was 74.4. The estimated rate was 74.8.
In 1979, the observed rate was 74.5. The estimated rate was 77.2.
In 1980, the observed rate was 86.6. The estimated rate was 79.7.
In 1981, the observed rate was 82.3. The estimated rate was 82.3.
In 1982, the observed rate was 80.4. The estimated rate was 84.9.
In 1983, the observed rate was 86.6. The estimated rate was 87.6.
In 1984, the observed rate was 92.9. The estimated rate was 90.4.
In 1985, the observed rate was 89.6. The estimated rate was 93.3.
In 1986, the observed rate was 92.9. The estimated rate was 92.4.
In 1987, the observed rate was 84.8. The estimated rate was 91.6.
In 1988, the observed rate was 88.1. The estimated rate was 90.7.
In 1989, the observed rate was 89.0. The estimated rate was 89.9.
In 1990, the observed rate was 86.8. The estimated rate was 89.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 93.1. The estimated rate was 88.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 93.9. The estimated rate was 87.4.
In 1993, the observed rate was 86.3. The estimated rate was 86.6.
In 1994, the observed rate was 87.2. The estimated rate was 85.8.
In 1995, the observed rate was 85.7. The estimated rate was 85.0.
In 1996, the observed rate was 84.3. The estimated rate was 84.2.
In 1997, the observed rate was 82.1. The estimated rate was 83.4.
In 1998, the observed rate was 87.0. The estimated rate was 82.6.
In 1999, the observed rate was 84.3. The estimated rate was 81.9.
In 2000, the observed rate was 80.1. The estimated rate was 81.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 80.2. The estimated rate was 80.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 81.2. The estimated rate was 79.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 80.6. The estimated rate was 78.9.
In 2004, the observed rate was 75.9. The estimated rate was 78.1.
In 2005, the observed rate was 74.4. The estimated rate was 77.4.
In 2006, the observed rate was 76.2. The estimated rate was 76.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 73.9. The estimated rate was 76.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 74.5. The estimated rate was 75.3.
In 2009, the observed rate was 73.2. The estimated rate was 71.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 66.3. The estimated rate was 67.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 64.6. The estimated rate was 64.2.

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Mortality, United States, Lung & Bronchus, White (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 37 years and 5 segments
During 1975-1980, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.4 to 3.4.
During 1980-1990, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.6 to 2.0.
During 1990-1995, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was statistically stable: -0.1 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 0.4.
During 1995-2005, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was slightly falling: -0.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.0 to -0.7.
During 2005-2011, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.4 to -1.9.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 42.1. The estimated rate was 42.3.
In 1976, the observed rate was 43.7. The estimated rate was 43.5.
In 1977, the observed rate was 44.8. The estimated rate was 44.8.
In 1978, the observed rate was 46.3. The estimated rate was 46.1.
In 1979, the observed rate was 47.1. The estimated rate was 47.4.
In 1980, the observed rate was 48.8. The estimated rate was 48.8.
In 1981, the observed rate was 49.3. The estimated rate was 49.7.
In 1982, the observed rate was 50.8. The estimated rate was 50.6.
In 1983, the observed rate was 51.7. The estimated rate was 51.5.
In 1984, the observed rate was 52.6. The estimated rate was 52.5.
In 1985, the observed rate was 53.7. The estimated rate was 53.4.
In 1986, the observed rate was 54.4. The estimated rate was 54.4.
In 1987, the observed rate was 55.6. The estimated rate was 55.4.
In 1988, the observed rate was 56.4. The estimated rate was 56.4.
In 1989, the observed rate was 57.2. The estimated rate was 57.4.
In 1990, the observed rate was 58.2. The estimated rate was 58.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 58.4. The estimated rate was 58.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 58.3. The estimated rate was 58.3.
In 1993, the observed rate was 58.7. The estimated rate was 58.3.
In 1994, the observed rate was 58.2. The estimated rate was 58.2.
In 1995, the observed rate was 58.1. The estimated rate was 58.2.
In 1996, the observed rate was 57.7. The estimated rate was 57.7.
In 1997, the observed rate was 57.3. The estimated rate was 57.2.
In 1998, the observed rate was 56.9. The estimated rate was 56.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 55.3. The estimated rate was 56.3.
In 2000, the observed rate was 56.0. The estimated rate was 55.8.
In 2001, the observed rate was 55.5. The estimated rate was 55.3.
In 2002, the observed rate was 55.3. The estimated rate was 54.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 54.5. The estimated rate was 54.4.
In 2004, the observed rate was 53.7. The estimated rate was 54.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 53.3. The estimated rate was 53.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 52.3. The estimated rate was 52.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 51.3. The estimated rate was 51.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 50.3. The estimated rate was 50.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 49.2. The estimated rate was 49.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 48.1. The estimated rate was 48.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 46.7. The estimated rate was 47.0.

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Mortality, United States, Lung & Bronchus, Black (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 37 years and 5 segments
During 1975-1981, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was rising: 3.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 3.0 to 4.0.
During 1981-1990, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.6 to 2.1.
During 1990-1995, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was slightly falling: -0.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to -0.1.
During 1995-2004, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -1.5.
During 2004-2011, the APC1 in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.0 to -2.5.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 49.3. The estimated rate was 49.7.
In 1976, the observed rate was 51.1. The estimated rate was 51.5.
In 1977, the observed rate was 54.6. The estimated rate was 53.3.
In 1978, the observed rate was 55.3. The estimated rate was 55.1.
In 1979, the observed rate was 56.4. The estimated rate was 57.1.
In 1980, the observed rate was 59.2. The estimated rate was 59.1.
In 1981, the observed rate was 60.6. The estimated rate was 61.1.
In 1982, the observed rate was 62.3. The estimated rate was 62.3.
In 1983, the observed rate was 63.7. The estimated rate was 63.4.
In 1984, the observed rate was 65.1. The estimated rate was 64.6.
In 1985, the observed rate was 65.8. The estimated rate was 65.8.
In 1986, the observed rate was 67.0. The estimated rate was 67.1.
In 1987, the observed rate was 68.6. The estimated rate was 68.3.
In 1988, the observed rate was 69.2. The estimated rate was 69.6.
In 1989, the observed rate was 71.0. The estimated rate was 70.9.
In 1990, the observed rate was 72.1. The estimated rate was 72.3.
In 1991, the observed rate was 71.6. The estimated rate was 71.7.
In 1992, the observed rate was 71.4. The estimated rate was 71.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 71.1. The estimated rate was 70.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 70.2. The estimated rate was 70.2.
In 1995, the observed rate was 69.3. The estimated rate was 69.7.
In 1996, the observed rate was 68.3. The estimated rate was 68.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 67.9. The estimated rate was 67.4.
In 1998, the observed rate was 66.9. The estimated rate was 66.3.
In 1999, the observed rate was 65.0. The estimated rate was 65.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 63.8. The estimated rate was 64.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 62.5. The estimated rate was 63.0.
In 2002, the observed rate was 62.0. The estimated rate was 61.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 60.9. The estimated rate was 60.9.
In 2004, the observed rate was 59.8. The estimated rate was 59.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 58.5. The estimated rate was 58.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 56.7. The estimated rate was 56.6.
In 2007, the observed rate was 55.4. The estimated rate was 55.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 53.1. The estimated rate was 53.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 51.6. The estimated rate was 52.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 51.2. The estimated rate was 50.7.
In 2011, the observed rate was 49.3. The estimated rate was 49.3.

Notes: